Everybody who has a 401k or has investments in the stock market knows how they felt five years ago today, and it wasn't good.
It was on March 6, 2009 that the S&P fell to its lowest level of the Great Recession, hitting 666 in intraday trading. Since then, the S&P and the stock market have roared back, blowing their the 16,000 mark and setting all time record highs.
Amaury Conti, a portfolio manager at San Antonio's Sendero Wealth Management, says now that the markets are recovering, it's time for the Federal Reserve stimulus which has powered the recovery to be lifted.
"The programs that have been put in place since then need to end," he said. "To that point, we see the Federal Reserve starting to reduce the pace of their bond purchases."
But Conti says now that the Fed is easing off, businesses will have to pick up the pace. Many corporations, citing 'uncertainty' have been stockpiling cash, which some large companies sitting on billion dollar bank accounts. He says the days of the Fed pushing up the stock market and businesses showing balance sheets which are based on cutbacks are over, and for the bull market to continue to run, investors are going to have to see companies making real growth moves.
"How they spend that cash over the coming five years has to involve a big purchase in capital equipment, machinery, and above all it has to be labor," he said.
Conti says corporations have played the 'uncertainty' card long enough. He says much of that 'uncertainty,' especially concerning Obamacare, has ended and the market is requiring that CEO's justify their hefty salaries by making bold moves to hire workers, buy equipment, and expand.
What about the possibility of a 2009 style crash happening again?
Conti says the stock market is full of cycles and bull and bear markets happen all the time. But he says many of the steps which have been taken since the crash to reduce dangerous risk taking appear to be taking hold.
"Some of the excesses that we saw built up in 2007 and 2008 have been removed," he said.